Is mining XBT really 40% cheaper than buying it? Yes, at the cheapest rentals
On Oct 27, Greg Tonoski said renting hashrate to mine XBT wasn't cheaper than buying it. Kilombino posted the math, and Greg changed his mind: "You are right. I admit it is currently (today) about 40% cheaper to mine sats with rented hashpower than purchasing them on Neoxa exchange." The math holds. But the discount depends on where you rent, and the coins come with a lock that changes on Saturday.
The math
- Coins per TH per day = 3.125 × 86,400 × 1012 ÷ (difficulty × 232). At difficulty 5,943,808,107 that's about 0.01058 XBT.
- Cost per mined coin = rental price ÷ 0.01058. At Kilombino's $1.86 per TH per day, that's about $176.
- Discount = 1 − ($176 ÷ $305 market price) ≈ 42%.
Kilombino's own adjustments: if the rental delivers only 90% of what you paid for, the discount drops to about 36%. With a 0% pool fee (DATUM or solo), it stays where it is.
It depends on the rent
| Rent per TH per day | Cost per mined XBT | vs. $305 | After the ~6% difficulty rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.86 (cheapest rentals) | $176 | 42% cheaper | ~39% |
| $2.56 (TideHash minimum) | $242 | 21% cheaper | ~16% |
| $2.78 (TideHash top bid) | $263 | 14% cheaper | ~9% |
So "40% cheaper" is true at the cheapest rentals, and closer to 15 to 20% at TideHash's current prices. Run your own numbers with live difficulty.
The catch: when you get the coins
- Mined before block 979,919 (about Saturday night UTC): these fall in the 45-day window. Consensus releases them at 979,920, and Knots relay policy holds each for 6,480 blocks, so most become spendable through about mid-December.
- Mined from block 979,919 on: locked 25,920 blocks, about 180 days, under Knots 29.4.3. Coins mined next week are spendable around early May.
- That makes renting a forward purchase. You pay now and receive coins later. If XBT falls more than the discount before they unlock, buying would have been better. XBT fell about 69% in the 18 days to Oct 26, so the cushion is real but not huge.
Greg's point still stands
Greg's wider argument was about who can afford to mine: "an honest miner like me, a pleb, is negatively affected by the longer lock-up period. The mining will be less decentralized as a result." Kilombino's answer was that miners who can't cover months of power shouldn't own machines, and that renting moves hash away from big pools. Both are true at once. The discount rewards people with patience and spare cash. It hurts people who mine to pay bills.
Our take
Renting is cheaper than buying right now, by 10 to 40% depending on the market you rent from. The cheapest week to do it is this one, because rewards mined before 979,919 unlock months earlier than anything mined after. After Saturday, it's a six-month forward bet on the price. Check delivery, use a 0% fee setup if you can, and don't rent with money you'll need before May.
Rent or buy calculatorTideHash market
Sources: Greg Tonoski and Kilombino on X, Oct 26 to 27, 2026 (quotes verbatim); TideHash market page, Oct 25; Knots 29.4.3 release notes. Difficulty adjustment estimate from xbt.live. Not financial advice.
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