Everyone's watching the cliff. The bigger story is the dry spell after it
All week, XBT's market has stared at one block: 979,920, where about 20,250 XBT of locked mining rewards become spendable. It's real, and it matters for a few days. But the bigger change starts one block earlier, at 979,919, and lasts six months. From there, every new mining reward is locked for about 180 days. Once the old window drains, miners stop adding coins to the market until about the end of April.
Miner supply, before and after
| Period | New miner coins that can be spent | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 to Oct 31 | About 0 a day | The 45-day emergency lock |
| Nov 1 to about Dec 16 | About 450 a day through the mempool | The 45-day window's rewards come out one block at a time, because Knots relay policy holds each for 6,480 blocks |
| About Dec 16 to Apr 30, 2027 | About 0 a day | Every reward from block 979,919 on waits 25,920 blocks (Knots 29.4.3) |
| From about Apr 30, 2027 | About 450 a day again | The first 180-day rewards mature, one block at a time |
That last dry spell is about 135 days. At 3.125 XBT a block and about 144 blocks a day, miners would normally bring roughly 60,000 XBT to market over that stretch. Under the new rule, they bring none.
So is the cliff a bear trap?
It might be. Here's the case:
- Everyone knows the date. XBT fell from a $937 close on Oct 8 to about $300 this week, going into a scheduled event. Markets often sell ahead of a known event and stop selling once it passes.
- The cliff is a drip for most holders. Anything that goes through the mempool comes out at about one block's reward per block, roughly the same pace as normal mining. It's not 20,000 coins in one block. How that works
- Then the faucet shuts. After about Dec 16, the biggest steady seller in any proof-of-work market, miners paying power bills, has nothing new to sell for months.
- Buyers are showing up. On Oct 26 there were more XBT in buy orders at every level than five days earlier. The order books
The case against
- Pools can skip the drip. Relay policy only covers the mempool. A pool can put spends of its own matured rewards straight into a block it mines. The biggest holders of locked rewards are pools.
- The book is thin. About 1,560 XBT of bids sat within 50% of the price on Oct 26. A few large sellers could move price a lot, in either direction.
- Miners aren't the only sellers. Every holder of pre-fork bitcoin also holds XBT, and those coins aren't locked. Copies of bitcoin transactions move old XBT every day, and some of it gets claimed and sold. Inherited coins
- Locked coins still weigh on price. Miners who can't sell may still need cash, and some will switch their machines to Siacoin or shut down. That cuts hash rate, not supply.
What to watch
- Block 979,920 (about Saturday night UTC): do pools mine their own spends, or let the drip work?
- Exchange inflows from pool addresses in the first week.
- Hash rate after 979,919: if machines leave, blocks slow until the next difficulty drop.
- Mid-December: the last window rewards drain, and new miner supply goes to about zero.
Our take
The cliff is a few-day risk. The 180-day lock is a six-month change in who can sell. Markets tend to trade the date they can see. The bigger shift is the one that starts quietly after the window drains. None of that makes the next few days safe: thin books can drop hard before they recover. Size accordingly.
Unlock countdownThe 29.4.3 rules
Method: 3.125 XBT per block, about 144 blocks a day, fees excluded. Window rewards (blocks 973,440 to 979,918) held by Knots relay policy for 6,480 blocks each; rewards from block 979,919 held 25,920 blocks by consensus under Knots 29.4.3. Dates are estimates and drift with hash rate. Price $320 and 24-hour volume of about 3,840 XBT from xbt.live at block 979,321. Not financial advice.
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