About $90K of selling moved XBT 15%. Then buyers stepped in
XBT fell from about $835 to a $630 wick in under an hour on Sunday, on roughly 120 XBT of market selling, worth about $90,000. Half an hour later it was trading back above $740.
What happened
The selling came in two waves on NeoxEX, the main XBT exchange, according to its 5-minute candles:
- 14:45 UTC: about 46 XBT sold across the USDC and BTC pairs. Price slid from about $835 to about $800.
- 15:25 UTC: about 70 XBT, including 44.9 XBT on the USDC pair in a single 5-minute candle. Price wicked to $630 and closed that candle near $710.
- 15:50 UTC: buyers came back hard. One candle hit $834 and closed about $747.
Against bitcoin, XBT went from 0.0081 BTC at the low back to about 0.0090 BTC.
The argument it tests
Last week Strive's Joe Burnett said a 379 BTC market sell would send XBT to zero. @mattkratter's reply: then why doesn't Strive dump its XBT?
Sunday was a small live test. The total sold was about 1 BTC worth of XBT, not 379. It moved the price about 15% at the low. That is a thin book, and Burnett is right that XBT liquidity is shallow.
But the price didn't keep falling. Bids refilled within minutes and the low lasted one candle. A seller dumping 379 BTC worth would cause far more damage, but they would also be selling into buyers who just showed they're waiting below the market.
What to take from it
- Liquidity is still thin. A five-figure market order can move XBT 10% or more. Use limit orders.
- Wicks are fast. The $630 print lasted minutes. Alerts help if you want to catch moves like this.
- Supply is about to grow. Locked coinbase rewards start unlocking around block 979,920. Read the unlock countdown.
Live price, volume and the XBT/BTC ratio are on the xbt.live homepage. This is not financial advice.