XBT difficulty jump now looks like 16%, due Saturday
The XBT difficulty jump due this weekend now looks closer to 16% than 20%. Blocks have slowed a little since our first estimate, but they are still well ahead of the 10-minute target.
Where it stands
- Estimated change: about +15.7% at block 977,760.
- Blocks left: 528, so the epoch is about 74% done.
- Average block time: 8 minutes 39 seconds, up from about 8:20 when we first flagged a 20% jump.
- Last 24 hours: 171 blocks, against a target of 144.
- Network hash rate: about 41.6 PH/s.
- Timing: around Saturday, Oct 17, early evening ET at the current pace.
The last retarget raised difficulty by 10%, so this would be the second big step in a row.
What it means for miners
Each TH/s earns about 14% less after a 15.7% step if price and hash rate hold (1 / 1.157 = 0.86). Hash price sits around $9.32 per TH/s per day today and would fall to about $8.06.
Margins are still wide for efficient machines. On today's numbers, a 19 TH/s, 3,100 W BLAKE2b miner at $0.13/kWh would clear about $143 a day after the retarget. Older, power-hungry boxes feel it first. Check yours in the mining calculator.
Why the number moved
The estimate is based on how fast blocks have arrived so far this epoch. Hash rate peaked near 48.8 PH/s on Oct 9 and has pulled back since, so blocks are coming a bit slower and the projected jump has shrunk. It will keep moving until block 977,760.
Data from XBT block explorers via xbt.live, as of Oct 14, 2026, 2:30pm ET. XBT at $744. Estimates only, not financial advice.
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