XBT drops 23% in five hours to $245, three days before the unlock
XBT fell from about $318 to $245 between 17:00 and 22:05 UTC on Wednesday, Oct 28, a 23% drop in about five hours. It briefly traded as low as $211.04 on NeoxEX's USDC pair. It's the lowest price since Sept 14, three days before the 45-day window starts to unlock at block 979,920.
The numbers
| Now | |
|---|---|
| Price (NeoxEX XBT/USDC) | $244.95 |
| 24h change | −23.1% |
| 24h range | $211.04 to $329 |
| XBT/BTC (NeoxEX) | −25.0% in 24h, with BTC near $81,150 |
| 24h volume, all tracked pairs | $1.32M (4,375 XBT) |
| NonKYC BTCB2/USDT | $260.98, about 6.5% above NeoxEX |
The XBT/BTC pair fell as much as the dollar pair, so this wasn't Bitcoin dragging it down. It was XBT.
How far it's come
- From the Oct 8 close of $937: down 74%.
- From the $1,799 all-time high trackers show for Sept 5: down 86%.
- From the September low: XBT bottomed around $120 on Sept 12. It's still about double that.
Why now?
We couldn't find a single headline that set it off. What we can see is the calendar:
- Knots 29.4.3 binaries went up early Wednesday UTC. The 180-day lock from block 979,919 is no longer a pull request. It's the release. What it changes.
- The unlock is three days out. About 18,905 XBT sits in the 45-day window, roughly $4.6M at today's price, or three and a half days of current trading volume.
- Difficulty is set to rise about 8% around Friday, Oct 30. Miners get fewer coins for the same power bill.
Traders who expect miners to sell after Saturday have every reason to sell first. That's the textbook "sell the rumor" setup, and Wednesday looked like it.
What actually unlocks
Consensus releases the whole window at block 979,920. But Knots relay policy holds each reward for 6,480 blocks from when it was mined, so if miners and pools stick with stock Knots, the coins drip out at about one day's rewards per day: roughly 450 XBT, or about $110,000 at $245. That's under a tenth of Wednesday's volume. If enough miners route around the relay policy, all of it could move at once. The case both ways.
After the drip ends in mid-December, new mining supply goes to roughly zero until spring, because every reward mined from block 979,919 is locked for about 180 days.
What it does to rent vs. buy
A cheaper coin shrinks the discount for renting hash. At $245:
| Rent per TH per day | Cost per mined XBT | vs. $245 today | After the ~8% difficulty rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.86 | $176 | 28% cheaper | ~22% cheaper |
| $2.56 | $242 | about even | ~7% more expensive |
At TideHash prices, buying on the open market now beats renting. Run it with live numbers.
Our take
Nothing about XBT's rules changed today except that the lock everyone expected is now shipped code. The selling came before the supply did. If the drip plays out as Knots policy says it will, the coins hitting the market next week are small next to the volume that just traded. If miners dump the whole window on day one, there's more downside. Watch the chain Saturday night, not the chart: our unlock tracker counts down to the block.
Prices from NeoxEX and NonKYC via xbt.live, as of 22:05 UTC Oct 28, 2026. 5-minute data; the $211.04 low is NeoxEX's reported 24h low. Locked supply from xbt.live's chain index at block 979,484. xbt.live has a referral relationship with NeoxEX. Not financial advice.
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