XBT unlock, first day: a drip, not a dump
Update, Nov 2: 769 XBT (3.8%) had moved by Monday evening, still at the relay-policy pace. Day-three update.
The 45-day coinbase lock ended at block 979,920 on Saturday, Oct 31, at 7:52pm ET. In the 14 hours since, 266 of 20,265 window XBT have moved: 1.3%. That's almost exactly the pace Knots relay policy allows. So far the unlock is a drip, not a dump.
What moved
| As of 14:10 UTC Nov 1 | |
|---|---|
| Window XBT (blocks 973,440 to 979,918) | 20,265 |
| Moved since block 979,920 | 266 (1.3%) |
| Still unspent | 19,999 |
| Expected under Knots policy (about 450 a day, 14 hours) | about 260 |
Under Knots relay policy each reward waits 6,480 blocks from when it was mined. The first window block was 973,440, so its reward became relayable at 979,920, and each later block's reward follows one block at a time. The moves so far match that schedule. Nobody has rushed the whole window into blocks, which consensus would have allowed.
Who moved it
| Pool | Window XBT moved |
|---|---|
| Quai Network | 112.6 |
| AlphaPool | 102.3 |
| Lazarus (xbt.live sponsor) | 42.5 |
| tochaos | 3.1 |
| Rabid Pool | 2.0 |
| B2Pool | 1.8 |
| RIPTIDE | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.6 |
Moved is not sold. Pools spend rewards to pay their miners, and many of these are payouts. Live tracker.
The 180-day lock is live
Block 979,919, mined by solo miner sobig solo at 7:49pm ET, was the first under Knots 29.4.3's 180-day rule. Every reward from there waits 25,920 blocks, about 180 days. As of this morning, 745 of 1,139 reachable nodes run 29.4.3 and 741 enforce the new rule (65%). 313 are still on 29.4.2.
The chain is past block 980,019, where a 29.4.2 node could in theory follow blocks that 29.4.3 rejects. Nothing like that has happened: every reachable node is within six blocks of the tip, on the same chain. A split would need someone to mine a block that spends a 180-day reward early, and nobody has.
Price
XBT was about $321 when the window unlocked and about $304 this morning, down about 5%. The range since was $294 to $349, on $1.1M of volume over 24 hours. Most of the run-up came before the unlock: XBT was $231 on Friday morning.
What's next
- The drip continues at about 450 XBT a day until around block 986,398, about mid-December.
- Then the dry spell. Rewards mined from block 979,919 stay locked about 180 days, so new mining supply falls to roughly zero from mid-December to spring. The case both ways.
- Still on 29.4.2? Upgrade. Your node is following the right chain for now, but it isn't checking the new rule.
Moved coins from xbt.live's lock tracker, indexed through block 980,027. Node counts from the Bitcoin Node Census (CC BY 4.0) via xbt.live. Prices from NeoxEX XBT/USDC via xbt.live. Block data from mempool.guide. xbt.live has a referral relationship with NeoxEX. Not financial advice.
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