XBT up 71% in three days, straight through the unlock
XBT hit $416 on Sunday, Nov 1, and was trading around $394 at 5pm ET. That's up about 71% from Friday afternoon's $230 low, a run straight through the 45-day unlock that was supposed to sink it.
The three days
| When (ET) | XBT | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 30, 3:40pm | $230 | Low of the week, the day after the Binance hack |
| Sat Oct 31, morning | ~$300 | Unlock day begins |
| Sat Oct 31, 7:52pm | ~$321 | Block 979,920: the 45-day window unlocks |
| Sat Oct 31, 9pm | ~$294 | Brief dip after the unlock |
| Sun Nov 1, 8am | ~$303 | Morning low |
| Sun Nov 1, afternoon | $416 | High |
| Sun Nov 1, 5pm | $394 | Now |
Bitcoin barely moved over the same stretch, from about $76,800 to about $77,700. So XBT/BTC rose about 68%. This was XBT's own move.
It wasn't the unlocked coins
Of the 20,265 XBT that unlocked at block 979,920, only about 366 have moved, 1.8%. That's the slow drip Knots relay policy allows, about 450 a day, and moved isn't sold. The coins the market feared were mostly still sitting where they were mined while the price climbed. First-day report.
Where it traded
| Market | Price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| NonKYC BTCB2/USDT | $404 | $667K |
| NeoxEX XBT/BTC | $401 | $331K |
| NeoxEX XBT/USDC | $394 | $204K |
| NeoxEX XBT/USDT | $391 | $13K |
| All markets | $1.22M (3,700 XBT) |
Why it might have run
- The feared supply didn't show up. The unlock was the event traders had been selling ahead of all week. Once it passed without a flood of coins, some of that selling turned into buying back.
- Less new supply ahead. Every reward from block 979,919 on is locked about 180 days. After the window drips out in mid-December, new mining supply drops to roughly zero until spring. The case both ways.
- The rules are settled. Knots 29.4.3 is out, 65% of reachable nodes enforce the new lock, and the chain didn't split.
We can't see who's buying. On a market this thin, about $1.2M a day across four pairs, a few buyers can move the price a lot in either direction. XBT dropped 23% in five hours last Wednesday, and it can do that again.
Prices from NeoxEX and NonKYC via xbt.live, hourly, through 22:05 UTC Nov 1, 2026. Moved coins from xbt.live's lock tracker. xbt.live has referral relationships with NeoxEX and NonKYC. Not financial advice.
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